By: Andrew Kasmarek, edited by Charlie Tritschler
Even though, there is a half of an NBA season left, it is probably time to look at what might happen to the Milwaukee Bucks. People think for some reason Milwaukee had some bad drafts which is true of any team, but what Andrew will tell you here is Milwaukee has mild to above average success on delivering a good draft pick.
In the NBA, it is no secret you either want to be first or last. Being eighth which has become a habit for Milwaukee Bucks is pointless. A team can flounder for an eternity if the right superstar is never captured. With small market teams, superstars are basically only acquired through the draft, and it is becoming even more rare to be able to hold on to the small market stars after their rookie contracts expire.
With the trend of forming “Big Threes”, large market teams thrived in luring big-time free agents with the variety of opportunities they offer. Especially considering that NBA players are highly marketable[1], and financial gain looms large in these cities. As a Caucasian from the middle of bum-fuck-no-where Wisconsin[2], I have noticed African-Americans are generally cooler than Caucasians. Hip-hop music sets a lot of the trends for what “kids” like these days, and NBA goes hand-in-hand with a lot of the rap music culture. Trendsetters gravitate towards Big Cities. NBA players are often times trendsetters. I remember playing against a group of suburban Caucasians in high school that wore $35 arm sleeves like they were fucking A.I. Iverson and players alike cashed in on that stuff. Unfortunately for Iverson, he just spent all of it too[3].
Anyway, with potential formations of “Big Threes” in huge markets like Chicago and New York and warm-weather-but-equally-big-destinations like Los Angeles, Houston, Dallas, Miami and Atlanta[4], small market teams can go into flounder mode rather easily. Teams like Memphis, Milwaukee, Sacramento and Minnesota really don’t have a chance. Unless of course, those same teams managed to hit on successive lottery picks, which is not guaranteed, because it’s the NBA Lottery.
In the old NBA, teams had the option of regionalizing a player before the draft with a “territorial pick”. The territorial pick allowed them to obtain the rights to of a player from their region. (This occurred by happenstance with both Derrick Rose and LeBron James years later.) This rule was abolished by the year 1965, but if this rule was still around, I am pretty sure I would be down for it, because imagining the competition to get on the Bulls for kids coming out of Chicago would be unreal. The same could be said for New York, or the competitive basketball in Ohio and Indiana. There is no arguing it would up the ante of high school basketball everywhere as kids would be playing hard to get noticed by their regions team. Also a stipulation could be made that if you go away from your “home region” to play college ball, you can be eligible to drafted by the team in that region too. I think that this rule could shake things up a bit. And potentially be better for the rivalries and competition of the sport.
Another thing that I have been thinking about is, why not give small market teams “tax returns” or something similar. For an example of what I’m thinking, why not give teams like Cleveland an advantage when losing LeBron James? Why not give them the option to offer him a max-deal plus an extra-allotted amount that no other team was capable of giving (that wouldn’t count against the cap) and give LeBron extra incentive to stay in the small market where he was drafted, rather then go elsewhere. It would force players to make more ethical decisions, show their true values and ultimately give the smaller markets a punchers chance to keep their superstars through money and guilt. My buddy Carter and I thought it up on New Year’s and I am pretty sure this could work. Then again I don’t know though, because we were drunk and it was New Year's[5].
With the highly touted draft class that looms in 2014, the league has more teams tanking then it would probably deem acceptable. And the Bucks accidentally[6] wound up at the forefront of the tanking.
The class is loaded. With sure to be stars like Jabari Parker, Andrew Wiggins, Aaron Gordon, Julius Randle, Marcus Smart and Joel Embiid. As well as foreign players like Dante Exum. Bucks really do not appear like they will be able to mess up this year, but stranger things have definitely happened, and I however stay nervous for a variety of reasons. The first being that in NBA lottery-land nothing is given. Everything is taken. Since the inflation to 1,000 Ping-Pong balls in 1994, the worst team has only won the first pick once: that team being Orlando in 2004.
And of course the fact remains; the NBA Draft is effing hard to predict. Even if you get a top pick, there are no guarantees. For every class like 2003 or 2008 or 1996 there are similarly weak classes, like 2002, 2005 and 2010. Not to mention, the strong classes normally end up with three to four superstars at best. So even when you get to lottery, it’s hard to just absolutely smash three or four consecutive drafts to form a “Big Three”.
But back to Orlando a.k.a. another reason why I am nervous for the Bucks. Magic currently hold a record of 10-29, good for second worst in the league. Orlando also happens to have a strong history in the draft lottery. Two years before the expansion to 1,000 Ping-Pong balls, in the year 1992, (It was 1994 when the lottery switched from 66 pong balls to 1,000) Magic won the first overall pick (and rights to Shaquille O’Neal) after finishing with the second-worst record in the league. They had a good shot at the number one pick that season and at 15%, they held the second highest odds to the first pick. The next year however, despite having the least amount of odds to win the first pick(1-in-66 or 1.5%), they won it again and drafted Chris Weber, whom they later traded for Penny Hardaway. An instance like this has only happened once, and it was for Orlando.
In 2004 they then won the first pick and drafted Dwight Howard, and didn’t go back to the lottery again until last year, when the received the second pick and look to have hit with their pick of Victor Oladipo When Orlando have been eligible for the lottery they have had repetitive success in getting the pick they deserved or higher, and furthermore have made strong draft day decisions. Leaving more bust opportunities on the table for other teams.
Milwaukee learned the hard way about the lottery. Which can be noticed by the volume of their lottery picks alone. Milwaukee’s lottery success, from a glace, would tell you that they have done “alright”. They have got the first pick twice (’94,’05), drafted a few all-stars and for the most part, had the Ping-Pong balls treat them well. The placement of their picks rarely has screwed them.
For the sake of the post however, we are diving deeper, to notice the trends of their placement and success correlates with the pick. Because as Bucks fans we all need the mental solitude of knowing that Milwaukee cannot mess up this years draft lottery no matter what.
Milwaukee Bucks and the city, the state needs this draft bad.
Let’s kick it back to ’93 folks:
1993 Draft:
The 1993 was a fun one. Not a ton of pong balls yet, but things were happening. Bucks had the sixth worst record that season, but ended up with the eighth pick. It did not end up too bad though because Milwaukee got a solid player and his name was Vin Baker. Baker played like a force down low, and came into the league ready to rebound and score. For his career, he averaged 15 points per game and 7.5 rebounds per game. He only played four seasons in Milwaukee, but they were some of his more productive ones. In 1995-96 he averaged 21.1/9.9 and the following season he averaged 21/10.3.
I also figure that Milwaukee is where he picked up his bitchin’ drinking habit (Because we booze hard here up in Wisco), and it was a problem that plagued him throughout his career. Life choices aside, I think it is safe to say that our first appearance in the weighted Ping-Pong ball lottery system went well.
Milwaukee: 1
NBA Draft Lottery System: 0
1994 Draft:
Milwaukee returned to the lottery the following year, but they won the first pick. Bucks were projected to get fourth overall pick, but with Milwaukee’s 16% chance snuck the first pick, and ended up with “Big Dog” Glen Robinson. I am not going to say the Bucks messed up, because he was part of the best Milwaukee team in recent memory (2000-01), but they did pass up on Jason Kidd and Grant Hill, the two guys who went on to share co-Rookie of the Year honors. I will reiterate, Milwaukee went with Big Dog and I am happy with it. The past is the past and, and he was on the all-rookie first team, and made an All-Star game. But they probably could have done even better.
I mean switch Big Dog with Jason Kidd, then you can figure then Milwaukee buys a small forward at the time instead of using the money on Sam Cassell and then you are rolling with Kidd, Allen and “forward X” all in their primes and that could have been fun plus George Karl coaching on the sidelines.
Bucks were close. Very close.
(Sigh)…. Oh well, and for the record I am still counting ’94 as a positive draft. So if you are scoring at homeMilwaukee: 2
NBA Draft Lottery System: 0
1996 Draft:
As I went back and searched through different classes, 1996 stood out as one of the best of my generation. Probably slotted behind 2003 and I am waiting to see how 2008 plays out, but that was a solid class as well. Either way, Milwaukee’s run of Lottery Picks continued as they received the fifth pick in the draft. Bucks had a 20% chance of first pick, so the fifth slot was somewhat disappointing. Luckily, it was a deep class, and Milwaukee hit on Ray Allen. Forming a nice but brief nucleus of Robinson, Allen and Baker.
The 4 players drafted before Allen, were Allen Iverson, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Marcus Camby and Stephon Marbury. Following Ray, was Antoine Walker, big Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Derek Fisher and of course Kobe Bean Bryant.
So now if we are keeping track, Milwaukee could have had Kobe and Jason Kidd running around in Milwaukee if only for a few years.
Even still…
Milwaukee: 3
NBA Draft Lottery System: 0
1998 Draft:
Bucks were an improving team at this point, and owned just a two percent chance at receiving the first pick in this draft. They ended up with the ninth pick, which was projected, and drafted Dirk Nowitzki, whom we of course traded for Robert “Tractor” Taylor.
This move is still dumbfounding on all accounts. Let’s talk more about this one…
If you were to make up a dream player for the Milwaukee Bucks, it literally would be a seven-foot tall German guy who loved to drink beer, shoot threes and win games. We drafted exactly the guy Wisconsin basketball fans like to see. We are home to La Crosse, Wisconsin, which throws one wild Oktoberfest celebration. I believe it is the third biggest nationwide.
We love beer like Dirk. We eat bratwursts like bananas. We are fat people who like 3-pointers. Go to any YMCA around Wisconsin, you will find a fat guy shooting a three. Maybe even on one leg like Dirk. We love beer some more, and we would have loved Dirk. But we were stripped of that chance. And it still haunts me. (Ed. Note: Maybe this will help Kazz, but Milwaukee never planned to take Dirk. This deal was in place before it got going, but still it hurts, I wrote about thiswhat if too a couple years ago –CT)
This draft not only counts as a loss, but also as a negative one. In a dream world, Milwaukee is about to step into years of Jason Kidd, Kobe and Dirk, but in reality, Bucks should have at least had Ray Allen, Sam Cassell, Big Dog AND Dirk. Dirk was supposed to be Milwaukee’s.
If you are counting at home:
Milwaukee: 2 (after deducting 1 for trading Dirk)
NBA Draft Lottery System: 0
Milwaukee Terrible Decisions: 1
2005 Draft:
Coming into the ’05 draft, the Bucks only had a six percent chance to win the first pick which they did leading them to draft Andrew Bogut. Bogut had a tumultuous time in Milwaukee. Oft injured, he wore out his welcome. But when healthy Bogut, he was a good player. An All-Star.
He did cool things for the team too. He did not like how quiet the Bradley Center was, so he bought out a section and paid fans to come to the games and show their pride. For receiving the tickets, a fan had to dress up and scream their ass off. There were tryouts and everything. “Squad 6” as he called it, brought life to the Bradley Center, and in the seasons the Bucks were competitive, it made their home court a tougher place to play.
Of course, in retrospect you would absolutely take Chris Paul first overall, or maybe even Deron Williams. But at least Milwaukee did not take Andrew Bynum, whom also was drafted this year. Passing on Bynum is great, because I cannot imagine how big of a slob he would have been if he had been drafted by Milwaukee.
So even though Bogut did not win much, I am counting it a success, but because the draft was pretty weak, I am only giving a half point.
Milwaukee: 2.5
NBA Draft Lottery System: 0
Milwaukee Terrible Decisions: 1
2007 Draft:
This was a bad draft for Milwaukee as they had a 15% chance for the first pick, as the previous season did not go well and Bucks finished with the third-worst record. Milwaukee had only a four percent chance to land a pick outside the top five and then they ended up with the sixth pick leading to draft Yi Jianlian which sucks really, really bad.
If Bucks had landed in the top five of this draft, they could have ended up with Kevin Durant, maybe Al Horford or Mike Conley. Hell even Jeff Green, basically anyone other than Yi. We could have also had Joakim Noah. While most of Milwaukee’s problems came just from not receiving the pick they were supposed to, Bucks compounded it by drafting a stiff.
A stiff that I remember said that he did not even want to play in Milwaukee and was not going to sign. This makes me so sad that Milwaukee even reached out to him to let him continue his basketball playing dreams.
I wish 2007 never happened.
Milwaukee: 2.5
NBA Draft Lottery System: 1
Milwaukee Terrible Decision: 2
2008 Draft:
The next season got even worse however. The Bucks landed the eighth pick, which was basically their projected place. But this draft was loaded, which was encouraging. The top seven picks were Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, OJ Mayo, Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook, Danilo Galinari, and Eric Gordon. Then came the Bucks with the eighth pick, and they chose…wait for it… Joe Alexander…Wait, who?? Yes, Joe Alexander. He was a 6’ 7” power forward with no mid-range, and limited footwork. And the Bucks took him with the eighth pick. Does anyone remember the last time a 6’ 7” power forward did anything in this league? Anyone? Anyone at all? I did not think so. Alexander’s shelf life was two years. He has not made a squad past the year 2010.
What makes matters worse is that by choosing Alexander, Bucks decided to leave this list of players on the board: Brook Lopez, DJ Augustine, Jerryd Bayless, Roy Hibbert, Javale McGee, JJ Hickson, Ryan Anderson, Serge Ibaka, Nicholas Batum, Nikola Pekovic, DeAndre Jordan, Omer Asik, Goran Dragic and Mario Chalmers.
Honestly, the 2008 draft had about 25 solid NBA players in it, and they chose Joe Alexander. I was pissed about it then, and five years later it still frustrates me. Bucks lost this one big time.
I should probably deduct another point, but I will not.
Milwaukee: 2.5
NBA Draft Lottery System: 1
Milwaukee Terrible Decision: 3
2009 Draft:
We received the 10th pick (deserving) and drafted Brandon Jennings. While Jennings’ run in Milwaukee ended sourly, he was good for the franchise. Jennings’ rookie year, he excited with a 55-point outburst, a surprise playoff run and a little (for lack of a better word) “swag” for the organization.
While they could have drafted Ty Lawson, whom has turned out to be a little bit after of a player then Jennings has, Milwaukee really could not do much better. It was nice to have a successful draft pick after the debacles of ’07 and ’08.
A win indeed.
Milwaukee: 3.5
NBA Draft Lottery System: 1
Milwaukee Terrible Decision: 3
2012 Draft:
Milwaukee got John Henson. They had the 12th pick, and it looks like the Bucks did well with it. Henson, whom is long and lanky, and has a quirky offensive game that, includes hook shots and lots of arms. His length is disruptive, especially considering the other players the organization is fielding around him. The length of Larry Sanders, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Henson is quite a sight for opposing players heading towards the rim.
I’m considering this draft a win.
Milwaukee: 4.5
NBA Draft Lottery System: 1
Milwaukee Terrible Decision: 3
2013 Draft:
GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO. Milwaukee really, really hit on this one. Giannis has done nothing but turn heads and win the Internet since arriving in Milwaukee. While I am worried he really hates the weather and that it will eventually push him out of town, I’m going to enjoy this kid while he is around.
THE KID IS SICK.
Final Score:
Milwaukee: 5.5
NBA Draft Lottery System: 1
Milwaukee Terrible Decision: 3
While every team in the league has messed up a pick or two, it pleased me to discover Milwaukee has been pretty consist on making good on their top picks. ’07 and ’08 aside, Bucks have showed strong trends of being competent come draft day. That makes me feel pretty comfortable moving forward.
There is always the possibility that things go south. But if the Bucks get one of the three or four really influential players that could come out of this draft, then Milwaukee will really have something special.
Contrary to what the 7-31 record says, Milwaukee really does have something going for them. This offseason will speak volumes as to where Milwaukee will go in the years to come, and if you do not want to cheer with me, I understand but don’t say I didn’t try to tell you. Now it’s all about having the Ping-Pong balls bounce Milwaukee's way.
I’m all in Milwaukee. And I’d love for you to join me at the Bradley Center.
Keep your socks dry, folks. It is still cold out there.
~Andrew
[1] The tallest, most athletic dudes on Earth and they do not wear helmets or hats or much of anything really. We know exactly what they look like. Making them an easy sell.
[2] I’m from Eau Claire, Wisconsin. A college town with like 65,000 people. Not very diverse but a growing minority population.
[3] The good news for A.I is that he had a clause in his Reebok contract that had stashed away a 30-million dollar trust fund that he could not touch until he was 50 years old. Which is huge. Whoever set that one up for him…Good lookin’ out man. That is awesome. Because a broke A.I. is crushing to everyone. I hope he hangs on alright for the next 12 years.
[4] I’m starting to think that no one really wants to live in Atlanta, but rather just go and party there. Because why the fuck do not they attract or even go after big stars? That place is huge. The fucking highway going through the middle of downtown is hell if you are stoned and trying to get through rush hour traffic on your way to PCB. It is just a fact. I thought big warm places attracted NBA stars. I do not know.
[5] Unrelated side note, 2014 has been great for me so far, but I have not gotten laid yet, which is too bad. Working on it though. So I need your support. (Ed. Note: Me too, same –ct)
[6] This offseason, with the addition of veterans like OJ Mayo, Gary Neal, Caron Butler Carlos Delfino, Luke Ridnour and ZaZa Pachulia, it can be argued that the Bucks were trying to stay in flounder mode.
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