by Adam Hatlak, edited by Charlie Tritschler.
Late December/early January is generally when the NBA starts to heat up. For this NBA season, this is especially true. With all of the injuries to major stars and one of the most anticipated draft classes in recent memory coming up, the landscape of the NBA is in store for a major shakeup. Due to all the changes, now is a good time to look at what the NBA will look like for the next 3-5 years. These Power Rankings were made from a fan’s perspective including many different variables: probability of future success, likeability of organization, trust in front office, and ability to acquire/retain quality players. All of the criteria are applied for the next 3-5 years, as anything further into the future is increasingly more difficult to predict.
Teams ranked from 30.) - 25.)
Teams ranked from 24) - 20.)
Teams ranked from 19.) -15.)
Teams ranked from 14.) - 10.)
Teams ranked from 30.) - 25.)
Teams ranked from 24) - 20.)
Teams ranked from 19.) -15.)
Teams ranked from 14.) - 10.)
9.) Portland Trail Blazers
Key Assets: LaMarcus Aldridge, Damian Lillard, Nicolas Batum, Wesley Matthews.
Reason for Hope: The team’s start this season has brought more hope to the franchise than anything in recent memory. This franchise has been fairly tortured over the last decade or two, with the “Jail Blazer” years as well as some painful playoff losses plus Greg Oden over Kevin Durant. Aldridge is playing on an MVP candidate level, and this team is following his lead. People believed Lillard to have a low ceiling, but still he projected as an NBA ready player. Not only has Lillard been impressive in his first two years in the league, he also seems like he is improving as time goes on, a good sign that Portland has its point guard of the future. Batum and Matthews help round out the starting five with solid defense and efficient offense.
Reason for Concern: With any team who takes a huge leap in wins from season to season, there is always a concern about regression. The Blazers are a candidate for regression, as they had an easier schedule to start the year than some of their peers, and they had players playing above the level they played for most of their careers. Before this season started, Aldridge seemed likely to move on from Portland after his contract was up. Although that seems less likely now, there is still a risk that Aldridge wants to join up with other superstars, perhaps on a team like Houston. If Aldridge leaves, it will be very difficult to replace him, but there is enough talent on the rest of the team to guarantee the Blazers will not be picking at the top of the draft.
Key Decision Looming: Will Aldridge stay in Portland? It seemed to be a given that Aldridge would be leaving Portland when his contract was up after next season, so much so that there were even trade rumors around him. Has this year’s team convinced him to stay in Portland? A lot of that will depend on their playoff performance. If Aldridge does not believe they can contend for a title, he might end up in a city like Houston. In the end, Portland does not seem like a strong enough contender to keep Aldridge from testing the free agent market, and if that happens, he might fully move on.
8.) Los Angeles Clippers
Key Assets: Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Jamal Crawford, DeAndre Jordan, Doc Rivers.
Reason for Concern: With any team who takes a huge leap in wins from season to season, there is always a concern about regression. The Blazers are a candidate for regression, as they had an easier schedule to start the year than some of their peers, and they had players playing above the level they played for most of their careers. Before this season started, Aldridge seemed likely to move on from Portland after his contract was up. Although that seems less likely now, there is still a risk that Aldridge wants to join up with other superstars, perhaps on a team like Houston. If Aldridge leaves, it will be very difficult to replace him, but there is enough talent on the rest of the team to guarantee the Blazers will not be picking at the top of the draft.
Key Decision Looming: Will Aldridge stay in Portland? It seemed to be a given that Aldridge would be leaving Portland when his contract was up after next season, so much so that there were even trade rumors around him. Has this year’s team convinced him to stay in Portland? A lot of that will depend on their playoff performance. If Aldridge does not believe they can contend for a title, he might end up in a city like Houston. In the end, Portland does not seem like a strong enough contender to keep Aldridge from testing the free agent market, and if that happens, he might fully move on.
8.) Los Angeles Clippers
Key Assets: Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Jamal Crawford, DeAndre Jordan, Doc Rivers.
Reason for Hope: Any team with Rivers and Paul quickly becomes a playoff team and a contender to make the conference finals. Rivers showed an ability to lead star players, and the Los Angeles market certainly has the ability to attract such players. Perhaps no star in the league, outside of LeBron James, Paul makes his teammates better. Paul consistently increased the talent of those around him through leadership, superior passing and underrated scoring ability. Griffin has incredible athleticism and is a great second option on offense. He is still young enough to improve in a few of the areas he has weaknesses.
Reason for Concern: There’s a slight possibility that this team has maxed out its potential. The team has a lot of talent and capable of reaching the conference finals numerous times over the next few years, but it is tough to see them raising a championship banner in the coming seasons. Despite his ability to make those around him better, Paul has not played with a superstar wing player, if he were to get an improvement on Jared Dudley and JJ Redick, things could be different. Griffin is almost becoming underrated at this point, with so many people talking about his lack of all-around game, but he will need to step his game up to another level to win a championship. Jordan never became the player the Clippers hoped he would, and without that development, this team will struggle in a couple years.
Reason for Concern: There’s a slight possibility that this team has maxed out its potential. The team has a lot of talent and capable of reaching the conference finals numerous times over the next few years, but it is tough to see them raising a championship banner in the coming seasons. Despite his ability to make those around him better, Paul has not played with a superstar wing player, if he were to get an improvement on Jared Dudley and JJ Redick, things could be different. Griffin is almost becoming underrated at this point, with so many people talking about his lack of all-around game, but he will need to step his game up to another level to win a championship. Jordan never became the player the Clippers hoped he would, and without that development, this team will struggle in a couple years.
Key Decision Looming: Can they win a title with Griffin as the number two option? Although he has not yet, Paul seems like the type of player that can lead a team to a championship, especially if he has a quality running mate. He’s a superstar in this league, but there are questions on if Griffin can win a championship in a star-driven league. Although the rumors were quickly dismissed, Clippers would be smart to trade Griffin for another star to pair with Paul, if that star is an upgrade on Griffin. It is more likely that Griffin stays put, but he will be rumored as long as there appears to be a ceiling on the Clippers future.
7.) Boston Celtics
Key Assets: Rajon Rondo, Jared Sullinger, Brad Stevens, 2 first round picks in 2014, 2016, 2018.
7.) Boston Celtics
Key Assets: Rajon Rondo, Jared Sullinger, Brad Stevens, 2 first round picks in 2014, 2016, 2018.
Reason for Hope: Rondo still has top five point guard potential, and his passing will allow for young players around him to get good looks while developing into a better player. Another option available for Boston is trading Rondo for additional future assets, which would surely bring back one of the best hauls on the trade market. Regardless of the players, it is not too early to put a lot of faith in head coach Brad Stevens. It seems like anybody who comes to Boston will maximize their potential. Right now, Danny Ainge has a bevy of players/picks with future value, and he delivered a championship the last time that happened, he should be able to do something with the value.
Reason for Concern: No doubt, Celtics have a positive outlook on the future, but much of that is based on variables and assumptions. The team is hoping Rondo can return to 100% and become a leader for a young team. They’re also hoping that they hit on one or two studs in the 2014 draft. They also have their fingers crossed that Brooklyn Nets continue to implode and the picks they acquired stay in the lottery. Ideally, Stevens will prove that his fast start is a sign of things to come. All of these are more likely to end up in Boston’s favor than not, but there are too many variables to feel overly confident.
Key Decision Looming: Is Rondo part of the rebuild? The Celtics seem to be taking a conservative approach to Rondo’s recovery, a smart move in a year they will not contend in. On the court, Rondo is the type of player you would like to see on a developing team, he is able to make those around him better. Off the court, Rondo might be unwilling to participate in a rebuild or may cause unnecessary friction. If the decision is made swiftly, Celtics can maximize Rondo’s value, either as a trade asset or a future leader, and it seems to be a true coin flip situation.
6.) Golden State Warriors Key Assets: Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes, David Lee, Andrew Bogut.
Reason for Hope: This team broke out in a major way last postseason, defeating Denver Nuggets and giving San Antonio Spurs a run for their money. Curry and Thompson are one of the more entertaining duos in the league. This team was a surprise contender in the Dwight Howard sweepstakes this offseason, and instead settled for Iguodala, whom has been one of the best free agent acquisitions this year. Iguodala serves as a calming presence for Thompson and Curry, allowing both to focus more on finishing open jump shots. Bogut continues to provide interior defense and toughness to a team that desperately needs both.
Reason for Concern: Curry’s ankle issues always represent a potential issue to this team, losing him would drop the team multiple spots on this list. This team also does not have a lot of cap flexibility for the future, after signing Bogut to a long-term deal in the offseason. Lee brings a lot on the offensive end, but he is notoriously bad on defense and struggles to match the pace of the rest of the offense. Iguodala was a great addition in the offseason, but is aging meaning will this team be able to jump another level in the playoffs before Iggy becomes less effective?
Reason for Concern: Curry’s ankle issues always represent a potential issue to this team, losing him would drop the team multiple spots on this list. This team also does not have a lot of cap flexibility for the future, after signing Bogut to a long-term deal in the offseason. Lee brings a lot on the offensive end, but he is notoriously bad on defense and struggles to match the pace of the rest of the offense. Iguodala was a great addition in the offseason, but is aging meaning will this team be able to jump another level in the playoffs before Iggy becomes less effective?
Key Decision Looming: Is David Lee still important? This team has very limited cap flexibility now with many of its stars signed to long deals. Curry, Thompson, Iguodala, Barnes and Bogut seem like sure bets to stick around, and despite his production, Lee seems to be the odd man out. Do the Warriors think they can get enough in return to move on from Lee, or do they focus instead on the interior offensive game he brings to the team that counter balances the outside gunners? Due to their recent winning streak, signs point towards them making a run with Lee in the lineup.
5.) San Antonio Spurs
Key Assets: Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, Tiago Splitter, Greg Popovich.
Key Assets: Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, Tiago Splitter, Greg Popovich.
Reason for Hope: The Spurs have long been one of the most consistent franchises in the NBA. When Duncan and Ginobili are ready to move on, Parker will take on an increased role for this team, and he is capable of doing so. Popovich is one of the very best coaches in the league and as long as he is in San Antonio, this team will be one to watch. They are able to get the most out of the role players they sign, as it seems they can plug various people into roles without skipping a beat. If Leonard is able to take the leap many expect him too, the team will have a different strength, but he will give Parker a high quality running mate.
Reason for Concern: It seems like we have been talking about the demise of the Spurs for forever, but it does seem like it is getting closer and closer. Duncan and Ginobili are getting up there in years, and it sounds like both have considered retirement. Splitter and Green are suitable depth while Duncan and Ginobili are on the team, but having them take on bigger roles will represent a drop off. Splitter also signed a larger contract in the offseason, so replacing Duncan will be slightly more difficult. Leonard is still a young talent with potential to grow, but does not seem to be the type of player that is going to take over games. When the big stars retire, the team’s success will fall even more to Parker, a player who relies greatly on speed, but is already 31-years-old.
Key Decision Looming: When do Popovich and Duncan retire? Regardless of who is left behind, a large part of the Spurs’ identity will leave when Popovich and Duncan retire. Duncan seems destined to retire within a season or two, and it will be interesting to see if Popovich retires in the same season. It would be tough to blame Popovich, a tireless worker of not wanting to restart once his franchise star retires. It seems likely both will leave in the same season, and logic suggests that they might already be retired if Ray Allen misses one more 3-pointer.
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