Projections are a cool thing to look at as a starting point to the season. ZIPs is one of the most trusted projection tools out there and released how 2014 will look for all Major League Baseball teams. They are not guarantees by any shape of the imagination, but it is still fascinating to see what the season might become for this player or maybe let's not expect as big of a season from that player. If anything, projections can make most expectations reasonable allowing for pleasant surprises and saddening disappointments along the way. Let's hope for the former with the Milwaukee Brewers this season. Here were some of the more intriguing numbers. These are in some order but not an exact order if that makes any sense at all.*****
*****Disclaimer... I keep up with FanGraphs and saw they had ZIPs projections for the Brewers out in late January, but they all became official yesterday as FanGraphs announced via Twitter these were out for the 2014 season. If I made a mistake and this is all old information, my apologies. If not, let's get this ball rolling. If it is somewhere in-between, then I have no answers.
1. Ryan Braun will likely make everyone love him again - The numbers for the new Brewers right fielder come in at 33 home runs which would be fourth in the league, hitting .300, swiping 22 bases, scoring 99 times as well driving in 116 runs. For all intents and purposes, this makes Braun an All-Star again and makes a case for being a fringe MVP candidate. The only thing concerning about Milwaukee's superstar is his OBP is at .367 which would be his lowest since 2010.
2. Four of the five starters find themselves with ERA's under four - Found this interesting as Matt Garza, Kyle Lohse, Marco Estrada and Yovani Gallardo all slide under the four ERA's looking all have strong seasons. The thing worth mentioning is other than Garza, most of the ERAs are close enough to four meaning it could be a fluctuating year for all of them. Looking at those four pitchers, there are reasons to have some encouraging thoughts about them if the play to their potential.
3. Carlos Gomez on pace to avoid the regression monster - Another strong year for the All-Star centerfielder is projected by ZIPs. Gomez's highlights him missing his second straight 20-20 season by one home run as he predicted to have 19 dingers with 32 stolen bases. Gomez's fielding percentage (FLD) would be top ten in the major leagues for the season at 11.8. For those wondering about his average, he would slide in at .260. This would be another ideal season for Gomez. He would have more than 100 strikeouts, but we can build on this! 4. Bullpen could be an issue... Again - Jim Henderson has the lowest projected ERA at 3.50 meaning there is not one bullpen pitcher projected to have a sub-three ERA this season. Francisco Rodriguez is the next one at 3.68. Although the one bright spot is two of the better possible relievers this season, Will Smith and Tyler Thornburg, both have projections as pitchers whom will get to start multiple games versus looking at them as just relievers. I know this might sound crazy, but I have a weird feeling Alfredo Figaro could be a strong sixth-seventh inning pitcher, I also might have down three bourbons before writing. Basically, the jury is still out but there are a ton of questions.
5. Another season of missing out on Aramis Ramirez? - The guess is Ramirez would only play about 111 games this season meaning he would miss about 50 games of the season or better known as six to eight weeks in the season. I do not think Brewers fans want to be realistic on what might happen with A-Ram this season. He could definitely be a trade piece if Milwaukee struggles in the first half. He could be a liability. He could also put together a kick ass season. I really do believe Ramirez could be all over the place this year.
6. Regression could hit Tyler Thornburg hard - Nothing about the numbers says this will be a strong year for Thornburg. But once again, we need to possibly look past all the statistics right now given it is a blend of mostly starting games. Personally, Wily Peralta will get the first opportunity and that opportunity will last for awhile unless the shit really hits the fan with him early on. I am all about Thorny as a reliever, but it is evident the Brewers see him as much more than just a middle reliever. If that were the case, Ike Davis would be at first base.
7. Do not tempt me with Mark Reynolds's home run numbers - People seem to be focused on how much Mark Reynolds strikes out even though he will not play every game nor will be hitting in a spot needing clutch hits on the regular (If Reynolds hits above five, fire Ron Roenicke on the spot) so yes Reynolds's strikeout number is 160 which is ugly. But they are also projecting Reynolds to hit 29 home runs which is a beautiful swan. Yes, he will not be flashy but dammit he can still put together a good year as a basher at first.
8. As always, Yovani Gallardo's numbers are a bit polarizing - I tried to make sense of this one. Gallardo's WAR will be the highest among Brewers pitcher. But he also has the highest BB/9 by a long shot with the established four starters we discussed earlier. Gallardo also gives up a good amount of home runs meaning there is not much to '2014.. THE YEAR OF ACE YOVANI!!!!' (No one is talking about this, but if he stars hot, someone will, just you watch (Actually it will probably me, so don't watch.)).
9. If Hunter Morris gets a chance... Could he be pretty decent? - For those whom do not know or care, ZIPs is a projection base system if minor leaguers got a 'chance' at a full season, what might happen. Morris is projected to hit 21 home runs, be second to Braun in doubles with 29, hit .241 and have 136 strikeouts which comes along with a mediocre OBP. I will be curious to see how the first base situation plays out this Spring and these projections get brought to light.
10. Wily Peralta does not improve, likely stays inconsistent - This is the one that disappointed me the most because I do really think the future is bright for Peralta. I have no doubts he could be a solid starer for the entire season, but these numbers do not really say he will be the best on the star. Peralta has a 4.40 ERA projection with a BB/9 of 4.18 and a K/9 of 7.08. These are not numbers that make you sell the idea of having Peralta being the fifth starter at this point.
In the end, these are all projections. No one really knows until the games are being played on the field, but at least, we have an idea of what to expect from the 2014 Milwaukee Brewers.
Charlie.
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