A Safe, Expensive Bet on the Future of Sam Shields

Green Bay Packers had a decision to make with Sam Shields, their up and coming cornerback, this offseason. They could either bring Shields back, or let him go to another team. Many people believed Shields would get paid within the range of six to eight million dollars. Instead, Shields broke the bank like that Schoolboy Q song, with a four year 39 million dollars contract with a 12.5 million dollar signing bonus. This caused people to overreact like they were just subtweeted, but in reality, the contract works for both as Green Bay took a risk on his potential which is probably the smart one to make for this team.

Many people believe the contract is too high for a player of Shields's caliber because the past couple years do not equate to the money he will be getting over the next four years.  People need to remember they are paying for him to be good in the short-term future. It is a lot like the futures market on Wall Street where you are betting on something to happen in a positive manner. Just like Randolph and Mortimer Duke bet on the future orange juice market, Green Bay and Ted Thompson are betting on Shields' future which looks brighter than most cornerbacks right now. 

Sam Shields vs. A.J. Green, Josh Gordon, Brandon Marshall and Calvin Johnson in 2013 (5 games): Allowed 8 catches, 129 yards, 1 TD.
— Zach Kruse (@zachkruse2) March 9, 2014

This tweet from Zach Kruse of Bleacher Report and Cheesehead TV is all that should tell you about why betting on Shields is the right idea. That's not a small sample size either. Shields basically kept three of the best receivers in football whom happened to see Green Bay twice a year in complete check. Oh yeah, he also did the damn thing against Alshon Jeffery. Shields is developing into a lockdown corner, and yes, he is not great against the rush yet he can hold down some of the best in the business. When people are wondering about his paycheck, these are the statistics needed to be used to look at Shields versus just reference the contract numbers. What's something I think people miss out on is Green Bay rarely on beat on vertical routes. Almost all of their problems happened over the middle. Shields and Tramon Williams did a great job on the edge, but that's get lost because the safeties were so damn bad.   

One of the other interesting things about Shields contract is he only gets paid six million dollars in his second year. He gets 15 million next year with contract and bonus, and only two million plus the usual three million dollar bonus in 2015.  In case you were wondering, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Bryan Bulaga are all up in 2015 meaning Green Bay found a way to pay Shields and defer money in that particular season to pay all of their other cornerstone players. While the 15 million dollars might people uneasy like Marty Hart watching the lost tape, it is only to cover Green Bay wanting to pay him severely less in  2015 to ensure they can get the other horses in place. 18 million dollars finishes off the four year journey with Shields, and by that time, nine million dollars a year will probably make sense. 

The only thing where there should be concern is the microscope becomes bigger on Shields. He never really had any pressure to perform. For the most part, people liked him as a player and no really took issue with him. If Green Bay struggles against the pass, Shields will get the blame right away. He becomes enemy number one in the cynical fans mind because he is quote 'making too money' plus all of the hot takes that follow with the particular quote.  That is the part of it where I worry about how this will play out for Shields. Fans will now expect him to be perfect which is highly unrealistic and stupid yet that's the fanbase at times. Hopefully, the pressure does not get to Shields and he keeps playing at his high rate because all will be forgotten about the money if he is making plays like this one. 

Green Bay's bar is set for the offseason. Half of the salary cap room is now slashed and they might bring back the likes of B.J. Raji, James Jones and Mike Neal if the money is right for the Packers. Thompson knows what he wants to pay for these players, and he will not go any higher than the bar set for all of these players. Thompson knows, he always does no matter what anyone else thinks of him.

Charlie.