by Adam Hatlak, edited by Charlie Tritschler.
Late December/early January is generally when the NBA starts to heat up. For this NBA season, this is especially true. With all of the injuries to major stars and one of the most anticipated draft classes in recent memory coming up, the landscape of the NBA is in store for a major shakeup. Due to all the changes, now is a good time to look at what the NBA will look like for the next 3-5 years. These Power Rankings were made from a fan’s perspective including many different variables: probability of future success, likeability of organization, trust in front office, and ability to acquire/retain quality players. All of the criteria are applied for the next 3-5 years, as anything further into the future is increasingly more difficult to predict.
30. Sacramento Kings
Key Assets: DeMarcus Cousins, Rudy Gay, Isaiah Thomas, Ben McLemore.
Reason for Hope: Cousins is one of the best young big men in the game despite issues about his character. On a basketball court, Cousins is able to impact a game especially when he is giving full effort. Thomas is a surprisingly good young point guard on a great contract. The Kings recently acquired Gay to increase wing scoring if they can find a way to get efficient possessions out of Gay and a better contract, there’s a chance that Thomas, Gay, and Cousins can make a decent core. Fans of the Kings have to be happy the team was able to stay in Sacramento this past offseason.
Reason for Concern: Hope increased for this franchise after Sacramento kept the Kings from moving to Seattle. However, the recent acquisition of Gay is puzzling. He is able to get his own shot, but is a low-efficiency, high-volume scorer with a bad contract. It is likely he will opt-out of his deal, but will face a Monta Ellis-like dip in salary if he does so. Despite years of picking in the lottery, the team only has one cornerstone player in Cousins, a player with significant attitude concerns. This is a team that seems destined to stay near the bottom of the standings for the extended future.
Key Decision Looming: Can they really build around Cousins? Although he has been signed to an extension, Cousins is still an attractive trade piece. If the Kings decide they want to truly blow up the franchise, and move forward with a different type of regime, they could still move Cousins for a different young player or multiple draft picks. It is a move they might want to make, as it is difficult seeing Cousins being the best player on a championship contender.
29. Milwaukee Bucks Key Assets: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Larry Sanders, John Henson, Ersan Ilyasova.
Reason for Hope: Bucks fans have truly been energized by Antetokounmpo’s arrival as he has been the lone bright spot in a dismal season. Giannis' raw talent leaves a lot of room for improvement and growth, and if he reaches his potential, Milwaukee will truly embrace him. Although it has been a rough few months for Sanders, he still projects as one of the best young big men in the game. If he can put these issues behind him, he will become a great building block for this team. Fans were concerned the front office wanted this team to contend for a playoff spot which would hinder the team’s lottery odds in a loaded draft. Luckily for fans, the Bucks have a lost a ton of games so far this season, and will likely be able to add a quality player to the team next season.
Reason for Concern: Many attacked the Bucks offseason strategy, instead of bottoming out and tanking, they appeared to be vying for the eighth seed. In true Milwaukee fashion, very little has gone right for the Bucks in their quest for the eighth seed, as an injury-riddled team seems destined for the lottery. Although they were involved in multiple trades, the Bucks were unable to acquire first round picks for the future, instead the settled for second round picks. The Bucks may have some buyer’s remorse on the Sanders extension, due to a rocky season thus far for the big man. Ilyasova is currently struggling to live up to expectations. These issues create some concerns about how many true building pieces the Bucks have to move forward with into the coming years.
Key Decision Looming: What is the identity of this team? Partially due to injuries and partially due to a lack of talent, it does not seem like the Bucks have a true identity. Going into the season, it felt like Sanders would be that leader, but his struggles to begin the season changed that at least for the time being. Bucks seem to have found a slight steal in Antetokounmpo, whom was not expected to contribute much this year. Moving forward, Milwaukee could become a strong defensive team hoping to grind out wins, Sanders still fits in, but Antetokounmpo may end up being the face of the franchise unless a stud gets brought in this offseason through the draft. (Edit starts)
28. Charlotte Bobcats
Key Assets: Kemba Walker, Al Jefferson, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Cody Zeller, Gerald Henderson.
Reason for Hope: Walker proved he is a legitimate NBA point guard, and Jefferson represents a post presence that many teams would love to have integrated in their offense. MKG would be a solid defensive stopped on a team that would not need to rely on him as an offensive threat, so if the Bobcats are able to add a star, he could play into their future. Henderson also is a player that would be great on a playoff team, as a rotation player, and there is still time for Zeller to develop into a solid player. The team will have a lottery pick this year, and will hope to turn that into a cornerstone.
Reason for Concern: Draft pick after draft pick have been troublesome for this franchise. Although Walker seems like he belongs in the league, early returns on Zeller suggest otherwise. Kidd-Gilchrist has been exactly what his pre-draft scouting report said, 'a high energy wing that can play some defense, but will struggle with shooting the ball.' If only one team ends up with a bust from this 2014 draft, it would not be difficult to imagine it being the Bobcats. Even though the team has lost countless games over the past few seasons, they decided to attempt to be mediocre this year with signing Jefferson, thus hurting their lottery chances in the most loaded draft in recent memory which is interesting timing to say the least.
Key Decision Looming: Does Walker get an extension? If so, how much. People viewed Walker as a player that overachieved slightly in college, and there were concerns that he used a dominant performance in the NCAA Tournament to elevate his draft stock. Walker proved to be a good young point guard in Charlotte, and is one of the lone bright spots in Charlotte. It would make sense for the Bobcats to sign him long-term when he is eligible. He is not a max-level player, but he should be able to attract a hefty salary.
27. Orlando Magic
Key Assets: Arron Afflalo, Victor Oladipo, Nikola Vucevic, Tobias Harris, Andrew Nicholson.
Reason for Hope: There are a lot of small victories in Orlando. It seems like they won the Dwight Howard deal, a lot of their young players are better than they were expected to be, and they have a front office that seems to have a plan. Of the four main players in the Howard deal, Afflalo is the only one still providing value to the team that acquired him. While teams would obviously rather have Howard than Afflalo, the latter provided some high quality shooting guard play this year. Nicholson, Harris and Vucevic all seem to represent some future value to the team playing above expectations. The front office seems to have a plan in place to get this team back in place, focusing on acquiring top talent, as evidenced by drafting and developing Oladipo.
Reason for Concern: There are some good pieces in Orlando, but still a lack of a star player. Despite solid young talent, the Magic are not winning games. Afflalo improved greatly but the Magic seem unwilling to trade him for extra assets. Afflalo is the team’s best player, and parting with him would be tough, but probably is necessary if the team wants to take a step up in the win column. A reluctance to make such a move could backfire in the long run, as a slow rebuild will likely mean that Afflalo’s contract expires by the time the team improves as a whole. The biggest issue in Orlando is that they have a lot of young players that could develop into good rotation players, but all seem to have a fairly low ceiling.
Key Decision Looming: Is Afflalo more valuable on the court, or as a trade chip? Afflalo is 28, and although he has been a pleasant surprise this season, he likely will not be in his prime the next time the Magic are good. The team could speed up the rebuilding process by turning him into a draft pick or younger player. It would be smart for the Magic to move him to a team looking to add some wing help, perhaps a team like Los Angeles Clippers would like to consolidate their wing players.
26. Toronto Raptors
Key Assets: Jonas Valanciunas, Terrence Ross, Masai Ujiri.
Reason for Hope: Ujiri is the single biggest reason to have hope in the Raptors over the next few years. Ujiri seems to be one of the best front office minds in the league and willing to blow up the Raptors as a whole, something that clearly needs to be done. Getting rid of Rudy Gay was a great first step towards improving this team, and a focus on the analytical side of basketball will help a Raptors team that had a wing rotation including both Gay and DeMar DeRozan. Valanciunas could be a good building block inside for the Raptors, whom hope to add a star in the loaded 2014 draft.
Reason for Concern: Despite the team’s recent win streak, there is not a lot of future hope. Even when they had Gay, the team lacked a superstar that could successfully guide them to the second round of the playoffs. Although things are beginning to turn around in Toronto, it seems like a very long rebuild will be necessary. Toronto has never been a town that was able to acquire free agents, so the draft is likely going to be the route that this team uses to rebuild. Although Ujiri seems to be a great front office mind, the team needs to be gutted before the full rebuild can begin, and they don’t have the overwhelming draft picks that many of their Eastern peers do.
Key Decision Looming: Who stays? It’s clear Ujiri is dismantling the mess of a team that was in place when he arrived. Gay has already been moved, and others have been rumored to be on the block. The team would be smart to try to move everyone they can outside of Valanciunas and Ross, potentially being able to get assets for DeRozan and Kyle Lowry. This team needs to get really young if they hope to be able to contend on a serious level.
25. Brooklyn Nets
Key Assets: Deron Williams, Brook Lopez, Joe Johnson, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Mikhail Prokhorov.
Reason for Hope: The Nets have a ton of talent in Williams, Lopez, Johnson, Pierce and Garnett. If everyone (minus an injured Lopez) is able to put it together and sneak into the playoffs as a three or six seed, they could win a playoff series. The talent may be old and injury prone, but the veterans still have the ability to play well when the games are most important. While many of their best players are likely to move on soon via retirement or free agency, Prokhorov still keeps this team competitive due to his willingness to spend whatever it takes. It would take a lot of luck, but this team is probably the most dangerous of those outside the Eastern Conference playoff picture
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Reason for Concern: This team went all in on this season, and it is a complete disaster. Tons of assets were used to acquire Garnett and Pierce, and both do not seem likely to be on the team next year, Garnett due to retirement and Pierce to free agency. Williams and Lopez have significant injury histories to the lower bodies, and that presents a big problem long term. They have not only given up numerous draft picks to Boston Celtics, but also have given Atlanta Hawks the ability to trade draft picks in multiple drafts. This team relied on veterans whom are not producing, and in turn gave up many ways to acquire young talent to replace them in the long term.
Key Decision Looming: How do they rebuild? This team has old players, and very few future draft picks. If they hope to be in the playoffs consistently, they need to be perfect in transactions for the next few years. Williams and Lopez seem likely to hang around for the next version of the Nets, but the former Celtics will likely be gone, along with the assets used to acquire them. They have to maximize value out of anyone that still has it, potentially even trading Pierce or Andrei Kirilenko at the trade deadline, to get younger. The only reliable way for this team to improve is for Williams and Lopez to get healthy.
Stay tuned for part two of six tomorrow.
Adam
Even though it has been a bad year for Milwaukee thus far, Mitch Pratt and Charlie Tritschler will provide you with a bi-weekly update on the Bucks ranging from recaps, links and other neat stuff. 
