by Adam Hatlak, edited by Charlie Tritschler.
Late December/early January is generally when the NBA starts to heat up. For this NBA season, this is especially true. With all of the injuries to major stars and one of the most anticipated draft classes in recent memory coming up, the landscape of the NBA is in store for a major shakeup. Due to all the changes, now is a good time to look at what the NBA will look like for the next 3-5 years. These Power Rankings were made from a fan’s perspective including many different variables: probability of future success, likeability of organization, trust in front office, and ability to acquire/retain quality players. All of the criteria are applied for the next 3-5 years, as anything further into the future is increasingly more difficult to predict.
Teams ranked from 30.) - 25.)
Teams ranked from 24) - 20.)
Teams ranked from 19.) -15.)
14.) New Orleans PelicansTeams ranked from 30.) - 25.)
Teams ranked from 24) - 20.)
Teams ranked from 19.) -15.)
Key Assets: Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans, Eric Gordon.
Reason for Hope: This team is going to go as far as Davis can take them. The second-year player was able to get off to a hot start this season, and it seems like he has MVP potential. If this is the case, Pelicans will be a force to be reckoned with, as they have what could be an above average wing rotation to be Davis’ sidekick. Gordon, Holiday and Evans can all potentially be solid rotation contributors in the right situation, but also could be shopped to another team desperate for a young wing, a resolution that might benefit the Pelicans more than having all of them on the court. Ryan Anderson served as a solid fit for the Pelicans system as well adding spacing to the team that will allow Davis to work inside.
Reason for Concern: The biggest issue around this team’s future is that they will likely be in the lottery this season, but do not own their own pick, as it was traded to Philadelphia 76ers in the Holiday deal. That pick could have been used to acquire one last young asset to help build around Davis, losing it hurts. Although they have a solid, young, wing rotation, there are too many question marks surrounding the players to truly see them developing into a dominant franchise with these players. Evans comes with a large price tag, and is likely best served as a sixth man, plus has not been associated with a winning franchise. Gordon likely has the highest ceiling of the three, but since his breakout, has been unable to stay healthy, or live up to his contract. Losing a high draft pick on Austin Rivers also affects the ceiling of this franchise.
Key Decision Looming: How does the Gordon experiment end? Although he was the centerpiece of the Chris Paul trade, the acquisitions of Holiday and Evans made it seem like Gordon became expendable in the long-term Pelicans’ plans. The issue with that is that Gordon does not have a lot of trade value; so ideally, the Pelicans would like him to get healthy to be the number two option behind Davis. If he can do that, this team can contend. The likely conclusion is Gordon is moved when he is close to an expiring contract, whether he brings back a valuable player or not will be the question.
13.) Chicago Bulls
Key Assets: Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, Tom Thibodeau.
Reason for Hope: The road map to success for this team is very easy to see; Rose gets healthy and returns to form next year, Boozer comes back, Noah works out his minor injury issues, Butler develops to fully takeover Luol Deng’s role and Thibodeau has this team playing its usual style of defense. Now that Rose is hurt, Bulls can move on from some of their older assets and hopefully add to the future. Boozer can either be amnestied, or moved for a minor piece for the future, as Deng has already been moved for Andrew Bynum’s expiring deal and heavily protected draft picks. Both were always likely to move on from the Bulls in the near future, but losing a season of Rose facilitates these types of moves.
Reason for Concern: This team has probably dropped the furthest over the course of this season. Rose’s second injury officially casts doubt on him as a long-term MVP candidate. He may be able to return to 100% of the player he was, but he also may be riddled with injuries for the rest of his career. Rose’s injuries also wasted some high-priced years of Deng and Boozer, as neither is capable of being a number one option, but both are exceptional role players. Butler and Gibson will be able to replace Deng and Boozer, but their promotions will weaken the depth of the team. Noah battled injuries of his own, and may not be able to put together a dominant season at the same time as Rose again. Bulls’ ownership has shown an unwillingness to spend unnecessary money despite being in a huge market. The biggest issue may lie within a potential rift between Thibodeau and management. If he leaves, the team’s defense will suffer and potentially fall to a league average level, something their average offense will not be able to compensate for whatsoever.
Key Decision Looming: Do they amnesty Boozer? Since the amnesty clause has been an option, there have been rumors that the Bulls will use it on Boozer. Chicago is notorious for wanting to avoid the luxury tax, and Boozer does not deliver the type of value in Chicago that his contract suggests. The Deng trade makes it seem like Boozer is destined to be amnestied, but there is still a slight chance he gets traded instead, either way, don’t expect to see Boozer in Chicago at the end of the season.
12.) Dallas Mavericks
Key Assets: Dirk Nowitzki, Monta Ellis, Mark Cuban, Rick Carlisle.
Reason for Hope: Carlisle is easily one of the best coaches in the NBA, although he does not get the credit he deserves among the casual fans. He’s been able to make Ellis an efficient player this year in Dallas and has also kept aging veterans Shawn Marion and Vince Carter as effective role players. Nowitzki is an example of what every General Manager hopes for in an aging superstar; someone who wants to stay with the organization, continue trying to win a championship, but take a reduced salary in order to bring in additional talent around them. If Dallas can bring in more studs, Nowitzki’s team first attitude will pay off. Although Cuban was a pain during his first few seasons as the Mavericks’ owner, he’s transformed into a very solid owner with him hoping to spend his money wisely to get the best product on the floor. This desire to get top level talent has not been the most successful lately, but will potentially pay off in the near future as expiring contracts come off the books.
Reason for Concern: Nowitzki is unfortunately on the downside of a prolific career. He will not be able to carry the team anymore like he used to, and it does not appear Dallas has anyone in place to take over for him. Surprisingly enough, they have struck out on numerous free agents the past few seasons, despite having the cap room to sign someone. Along with Nowitzki, much of this team is aging as Carter, Marion and Jose Calderon all get tons of minutes. The biggest problem with the age on this team comes from having no star in waiting to take control of this team. Ellis has been playing well, but should not be the number one option on Dallas or any team in the league.
Key Decision Looming: Who is the next face of the franchise? Of all the aging stars, Nowitzki seems most willing to pass the torch to another player, but he also seems to have the least deserving candidates for that throne. Dallas is a team gets pegged as a good free agency destination, but they have not found another superstar to confirm that assumption. It seems like Nowizki will take a smaller deal, and hope to find one more star in the way of free agency, or a trade. If Nowitzki cannot pass the torch to someone before he retires, Dallas could be for a tough stretch.
11.) Atlanta Hawks
Key Assets: Al Horford, Jeff Teague, Paul Millsap, Louis Williams, Danny Ferry.
Reason for Hope: The Hawks seem to be one of the more stable franchises in the league. Despite not really lowering their status in the Eastern Conference, Hawks have retooled what they look like on the court. Any team that can get assets for Joe Johnson’s contract and be confident enough to let Josh Smith walk in free agency, but yet stay in the same spot in the standings deserves an optimistic future. The team has a lot of players that would be quality starters on a good team. Hopefully they can add one more star, and with the ability to swap picks with Brooklyn Nets, they may be able to do so in the upcoming draft.
Reason for Concern: This team is a model of consistency even if the consistency might prove incredibly frustrating for their fan base. Every season, it feels like the Hawks will finish somewhere between the three and six seeds in the East, and either lose in the first or second round, depending on their opponent. This can be great in years where it feels like the Hawks will have a down year, but when the team seems to be at its peak, it just cannot break the ceiling. Horford would likely need to be a second or third option on a dominant team, but his current injury, and injury history makes it tough to trust him as a number one option. The Hawks seem to have missed their best chance to bring in a star free agent after missing out on Chris Paul and Dwight Howard this past offseason.
Key Decision Looming: Who do they draft in the 2014 NBA Draft? This team is the biggest wildcard in this year’s draft due to their ability to switch picks with the Nets. They could potentially have a very high pick and have the most flexible roster. They do not have any holes they absolutely must fill, and have no players that would block any young guys from developing. If they are able to land one of the best players in the draft, this team could become a threat quickly.
10. Phoenix Suns
Key Assets: Eric Bledsoe, Goran Dragic, Marcus Morris, Markieff Morris, two first round picks in 2014 and 2015.
Reason for Hope: This team is far ahead of where everyone expected them to be in the rebuilding process, something that is always beneficial to an organization. Bledsoe seems to be the real deal and is a definite building block moving forward. Many of their young players have stepped up this year, and shown they can hang around as role players once the team improves. Acquiring one or two star players will allow everyone else on this team to take on a reduced role, ideally increasing everyone’s efficiency. Dragic is a surprisingly decent backcourt mate for Bledsoe, and will be an attractive trade chip in the next year and a half for teams that might want a relatively inexpensive point guard.
Reason for Concern: Despite the Suns’ surprising start this season, the reason for their high potential lies within what they are able to do with young players and future draft picks, two things that are at times difficult to predict. Bledsoe has been great, but will be a restricted free agent in the coming offseason, which will remove the benefit of having a young player on a cheap contract. There are some legitimate questions if Bledsoe will be able to live up to contract he is sure to get, but Suns have little choice but to pay Bledsoe. Phoenix will have to surround Bledsoe and Dragic with quality young players with numerous draft picks in the next few years, something the organization has struggled with in recent years.
Key Decision Looming: Does Dragic fit in long term? The Suns are on record saying that they want to resign Bledsoe long term regardless of the cost. When Bledsoe was acquired, there were concerns if he and Dragic would play well together. So far this season, they have fit decently in the backcourt, but perhaps they are slightly redundant long-term. If there is a playoff contender who is looking for a veteran point guard to lead their team, or fill in for an injured player, the Suns should think about moving him. If not, he will provide good value to their team.
