Late December/early January is generally when the NBA starts to heat up. For this NBA season, this is especially true. With all of the injuries to major stars and one of the most anticipated draft classes in recent memory coming up, the landscape of the NBA is in store for a major shakeup. Due to all the changes, now is a good time to look at what the NBA will look like for the next 3-5 years. These Power Rankings were made from a fan’s perspective including many different variables: probability of future success, likeability of organization, trust in front office, and ability to acquire/retain quality players. All of the criteria are applied for the next 3-5 years, as anything further into the future is increasingly more difficult to predict. Teams ranked from 30.) - 25.) Teams ranked from 24) - 20.) 19.) Cleveland Cavaliers
Key Assets: Kyrie Irving, Luol Deng, Tristan Thompson, Dion Waiters, Anderson Varejao.
Reason for Hope: Irving is one of the best young players in the NBA and now with Paul George fully developed; Kyrie seems most likely to take the jump to true superstar status. Thompson has developed above what his early ceiling seemed to be, which also gives some hope for Anthony Bennett (Ed. note: Incredible the first overall pick of last year's draft is not a key asset nor does he deserve to be, what a world -CT). There’s a role for Waiters in the NBA, it’s just not as a starting guard, if the Cavs can find a way to make him a sixth man, his contributions will likely skyrocket. Varejao is a valuable trade chip for a desperate playoff bound team needing help on the front-line; he can be used to bring back some future value. Turning Andrew Bynum into Deng was a good move for the Cavs given that they can sign him long term.
Reason for Concern: The Cavs have been a mess this season, a season in which they hoped to turn the corner to playoff contender and set themselves up for a run at the future. Instead, they have taken a step backwards. Irving faced injury concerns throughout his career and possesses questions marks on the defensive end. Bringing in Bynum turned into a complete fiasco. There have been locker room problems, personality clashes, and a lot more losses. There was hope for a long time that LeBron James would come back, and pair with a new sidekick in Irving, but it is looking more and more likely that they will stay in the lottery for the near future.
Key Decision Looming: How do they keep Irving? There were long shot dreams of luring James back in free agency, now that those are gone, the team must focus on convincing Irving not to follow James’ path. Acquiring Deng was a step in the right direction, but needs additional follow-up. If Waiters and Irving continue to clash, the team will have to move Waiters, and keeping Thompson will likely need to stay as well. Regardless of what happens to Thompson and Waiters, Irving will need a quality running mate, either acquired in the lottery this season, or free agency. Cavs fans should be concerned about losing Irving for nothing.
18.) Philadelphia 76ers
Key Assets: Nerlens Noel, Michael Carter-Williams, Thaddeus Young, Evan Turner, 2 first round picks in 2014, Sam Hinkie.
Reason for Hope: This team has so many assets for the future. Carter-Williams and Noel are a good haul from a weak 2013 draft, and they also possess two first round picks this year. Adding two potential lottery players to this team could make a solid rotation of four, with Noel potentially being the weakest link. If they hit on all of these picks, they could be a legit title contender in a few years. Although it seems unlikely, if Turner and Young were willing to stay on past the rebuilding point, they could be great off the bench players for a developing Philadelphia team. Hinkie seems like the type of basketball mind that will make the correct decisions in this year’s loaded draft. It is entirely possible that they walk away the winners of the 2014 draft.
Reason for Concern: There is a lot of young talent on this team, and future talent coming in as well, but they need to find some guys who can shoot. Noel, Carter-Williams, Young and Turner all seem to be players who struggle at shooting a high percentage. A team can handle having a few of those types of players on their team, but to have the core of the team with that issue will result in difficulties in half-court sets. Noel has high upside as he was the assumed number one pick for a long time, but definite concerns regarding his injury issues and a raw offensive game. There are questions if he will be able to develop above this ceiling. Turner and Young do not look like they will be part of the rebuilding in Philadelphia, which is a shame, as both could be useful players if their roles and salaries were limited.
Key Decision Looming: Who do they select in the 2014 NBA Draft? The 76ers seem to be trying to follow the Oklahoma City model to building a title contender, as they have absolutely bottomed out in a hope to acquire multiple high lottery picks. Noel and Carter-Williams can be good building blocks, but it is merely just a start for this team. If Philadelphia is going to be a dominant franchise, they need to acquire their franchise star in this draft, along with a good second or third option. Allowing Carter-Williams and Noel to focus on defense and being role players on offense will be great for Philadelphia’s future.
17.) Detroit Pistons
Key Assets: Josh Smith, Andre Drummond, Brandon Jennings, Greg Monroe.
Reason for Hope: The Pistons were able to bring a big name free agent to a team without a superstar already in place, something that seems to be difficult to do in today’s NBA. Smith has long faced questions regarding his decision-making ability, but he can still play defense, rebound, and get his own shot. Detroit has so much depth up front that Greg Monroe seems likely to be the odd man out, a problem many franchises would love to have. Detroit might be able to acquire some wing players for Monroe,and would be wise to do so making him one of the best assets on the trade market. The biggest win for this team was getting Drummond where they did in the draft, teams that can get solid building blocks in picks 7-15 have an advantage to getting out of the lottery, since those picking around them are usually just acquiring rotation players.
Reason for Concern: Both Jennings and Smith take too many bad shots to see this team really jumping in the standings. Both would be seen differently five years ago when high volume shot takers were more appreciated. Having both on the court results in too many wasted possessions on bad shots. While Drummond’s ascension is great on the court, the Pistons would like to have the front court strength balanced out with the backcourt weakness. This just does not have the feel of a team that can take the next step into winning a few playoff series, so unfortunately for them, they may be at their ceiling now.
Key Decision Looming: What is Monroe’s future? Monroe has been a solid player on a struggling Pistons team for his whole career and now they have some better players to put around him. The tough part is, he style does not fully mesh with Drummond, who is a better future player, and Smith, who is a better current player with a high salary. Monroe seems to be the odd man out if he cannot adapt or take a lower salary. The Pistons should consider trading him before the deadline, otherwise they risk losing with no return. Teams like Washington, Boston, Philadelphia, Denver and Memphis could be interested.
16.) Minnesota Timberwolves
Key Assets: Kevin Love, Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic, Kevin Martin.
Reason for Hope: Love is a top-10 player in the league, and whenever a team has that type of star, they will be able to compete. If Love can continue at a high level of play, and get some help from other players on the team, the Timberwolves could make a leap. Rubio was acquired to run an offense in Minnesota with his passing ability and develop a solid pick’n’roll game with Love. If Rubio can start to develop out of where he currently is, this team could dominate. Having Pekovic as an additional inside threat is a problem many teams would love to have, and Martin has proven to be a quality addition for the team.
Reason for Concern: The optimism that comes from this team seems to mostly stem from the fact that they are out from under the old front office, but many of the problems that started a few years ago, are still largely issues. Love is not locked up for as many years as possible, and seems like a candidate for the superstar most willing to leave his team. Rubio has been going through well-documented struggles with his shot. If Rubio is unable to get his shot in order, teams will sag off on defense and take away passing lanes thus taking away his biggest asset. Love is the type of player who would attract a high quality running mate, but the Midwest seems like an unlikely place for that to happen, meaning Love would have to leave.
Key Decision Looming: How do they convince Love to stay? For much of Love’s time in Minnesota, it seems like a partnership doomed for a messy end. The development of Rubio and Pekovic made it seem like there was a chance that the Timberwolves would be able to keep the core long term, but Rubio got the contract Love wanted and took a step back, while Pekovic struggled playing at the same time as Love. In the end, the Timberwolves do not seem to have the inside track to retaining Love, perhaps increased development from Rubio could convince him to stay, but Love seems destined to end up in a large market in a few years.
15.) Denver Nuggets
Key Assets: Ty Lawson, Kenneth Faried, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari.
Reason for Hope: Lawson is one of the most entertaining point guards in the league due to his lightning quickness and constant improvement since entering the league. Faried is able to match Lawson’s intensity and energy, and helps the Nuggets do what they do best, run the court. The altitude has always been something that helps the Nuggets, especially given the high-paced brand of basketball they play. They were able to get one of the most impressive hauls of any team trading away a star player. Even though trading away Carmelo Anthony was a few seasons ago, the Nuggets never had to tank in order to get back into the playoffs, that type of rebound is impressive for an organization.
Reason for Concern: There was a lot of optimism around this team a few years ago after they were able to appear victorious after the Carmelo Anthony deal. Since then, they have made some decisions that have chipped away at that optimism. It seems like they overreacted to losing in the playoffs last year, firing George Karl in the process. While Brian Shaw has long been an upcoming star in the coaching ranks, Karl was able to overachieve with the roster he had. The team is now led by Lawson and Faried, whom are two quality players, but do not seem ready to advance far in the playoffs as the top two options. This team definitely needs a go-to option on offense, especially in the half-court set. Last year, they were a team with no superstar that was able to win playing ultimate team basketball, this year they are a team with no superstar that needs one.
Key Decision Looming: How do they acquire a star? The Nuggets are headed for the dreaded middle ground of the NBA, not good enough to contend, but not bad enough to get a high draft pick. Additionally, Denver has not traditionally been the type of team that attracts star free agents. The best chance this team has is going back to where they were a few years ago, where they were a team that had 10 guys who could play at a high level. They are still a deep team, but the strength in their depth has decreased slightly. If they are able to become deep again, they might be able to get by without a star.
