10 Interesting Thoughts on 2014 Brewers' ZIPs

I am starting to get the baseball itch. No it is not like an STD so do not worry about becoming infected, but it is time to wade my toes back in the water of baseball writing. This is probably the time when people wonder 'Why doesn't Charlie just pick a lane?' and I say 'Well sorry for being an equal opportunity sports lover, gosh.'  Anyways, this is my first of many Milwaukee Brewers posts of the season and then we will be getting to MLB previews either starting Saturday or Monday pending if I go out after work on Friday night.

Projections are a cool thing to look at as a starting point to the season. ZIPs is one of the most trusted projection tools out there and released how 2014 will look for all Major League Baseball teams. They are not guarantees by any shape of the imagination, but it is still fascinating to see what the season might become for this player or maybe let's not expect as big of a season from that player. If anything, projections can make most expectations reasonable allowing for pleasant surprises and saddening disappointments along the way. Let's hope for the former with the Milwaukee Brewers this season.  Here were some of the more intriguing numbers. These are in some order but not an exact order if that makes any sense at all.***** 

*****Disclaimer... I keep up with FanGraphs and saw they had ZIPs projections for the Brewers out in late January, but they all became official yesterday as FanGraphs announced via Twitter these were out for the 2014 season.  If I made a mistake and this is all old information, my apologies. If not, let's get this ball rolling.  If it is somewhere in-between, then I have no answers.   

1. Ryan Braun will likely make everyone love him again - The numbers for the new Brewers right fielder come in at 33 home runs which would be fourth in the league, hitting .300, swiping 22 bases, scoring 99 times as well driving in 116 runs. For all intents and purposes, this makes Braun an All-Star again and makes a case for being a fringe MVP candidate. The only thing concerning about Milwaukee's superstar is his OBP is at .367 which would be his lowest since 2010. 

2. Four of the five starters find themselves with ERA's under four - Found this interesting as Matt Garza, Kyle Lohse, Marco Estrada and Yovani Gallardo all slide under the four ERA's looking all have strong seasons. The thing worth mentioning is other than Garza, most of the ERAs are close enough to four meaning it could be a fluctuating year for all of them. Looking at those four pitchers, there are reasons to have some encouraging thoughts about them if the play to their potential. 

3. Carlos Gomez on pace to avoid the regression monster - Another strong year for the All-Star centerfielder is projected by ZIPs.  Gomez's highlights him missing his second straight 20-20 season by one home run as he predicted to have 19 dingers with 32 stolen bases. Gomez's fielding percentage (FLD) would be top ten in the major leagues for the season at 11.8. For those wondering about his average, he would slide in at .260. This would  be another ideal season for Gomez. He would have more than 100 strikeouts, but we can build on this! 

4. Bullpen could be an issue... Again - Jim Henderson has the lowest projected ERA at 3.50 meaning there is not one bullpen pitcher projected to have a sub-three ERA this season. Francisco Rodriguez is the next one at 3.68. Although the one bright spot is two of the better possible relievers this season, Will Smith and Tyler Thornburg, both have projections as pitchers whom will get to start multiple games versus looking at them as just relievers. I know this might sound crazy, but I have a weird feeling Alfredo Figaro could be a strong sixth-seventh inning pitcher, I also might have down three bourbons before writing. Basically, the jury is still out but there are a ton of questions. 

5. Another season of missing out on Aramis Ramirez? - The guess is Ramirez would only play about 111 games this season meaning he would miss about 50 games of the season or better known as six to eight weeks in the season. I do not think Brewers fans want to be realistic on what might happen with A-Ram this season. He could definitely be a trade piece if Milwaukee struggles in the first half. He could be a liability. He could also put together a kick ass season. I really do believe Ramirez could be all over the place this year.

6. Regression could hit Tyler Thornburg hard - Nothing about the numbers says this will be a strong year for Thornburg. But once again, we need to possibly look past all the statistics right now given it is a blend of mostly starting games. Personally, Wily Peralta will get the first opportunity and that opportunity will last for awhile unless the shit really hits the fan with him early on. I am all about Thorny as a reliever, but it is evident the Brewers see him as much more than just a middle reliever. If that were the case, Ike Davis would be at first base. 

7. Do not tempt me with Mark Reynolds's home run numbers - People seem to be focused on how much Mark Reynolds strikes out even though he will not play every game nor will be hitting in a spot needing clutch hits on the regular (If Reynolds hits above five, fire Ron Roenicke on the spot) so yes Reynolds's strikeout number is 160 which is ugly. But they are also projecting Reynolds to hit 29 home runs which is a beautiful swan. Yes, he will not be flashy but dammit he can still put together a good year as a basher at first. 

8. As always, Yovani Gallardo's numbers are a bit polarizing - I tried to make sense of this one. Gallardo's WAR will be the highest among Brewers pitcher. But he also has the highest BB/9 by a long shot with the established four starters we discussed earlier. Gallardo also gives up a good amount of home runs meaning there is not much to '2014.. THE YEAR OF ACE YOVANI!!!!' (No one is talking about this, but if he stars hot, someone will, just you watch (Actually it will probably me, so don't watch.)).  

9. If Hunter Morris gets a chance... Could he be pretty decent? - For those whom do not know or care, ZIPs is a projection base system if minor leaguers got a 'chance' at a full season, what might happen. Morris is projected to hit 21 home runs, be second to Braun in doubles with 29, hit .241 and have 136 strikeouts which comes along with a mediocre OBP. I will be curious to see how the first base situation plays out this Spring and these projections get brought to light.  

10. Wily Peralta does not improve, likely stays inconsistent - This is the one that disappointed me the most because I do really think the future is bright for Peralta. I have no doubts he could be a solid starer for the entire season, but these numbers do not really say he will be the best on the star. Peralta has a 4.40 ERA projection with a BB/9 of 4.18 and a K/9 of 7.08. These are not numbers that make you sell the idea of having Peralta being the fifth starter at this point. 

In the end, these are all projections. No one really knows until the games are being played on the field, but at least, we have an idea of what to expect from the 2014 Milwaukee Brewers.

Charlie.  

Garza Signing Gives Brewers Hope for October

When Milwaukee Brewers signed Mark Reynolds, this very blog made mention how the team had been very quiet this offseason, and it almost felt like they were too quiet. The latter proved to be accurate as Milwaukee signed Matt Garza to a four-deal worth 50 million dollars, but he could earn up to 67 million dollars over five years if things go really well. Garza helps the Brewers in not only adding an high-quality pitcher to their rotation but he also brings a fiery nature Milwaukee has missed since 2011. Brewers are getting closer to make a run at the 2014 MLB Playoffs. 

Throughout the Doug Melvin era, pitching is usually the problem. 2013 might have been the first time in a long time where the hitters were not picking up the slack for the pitching rotation and the bullpen. With Ryan Braun back and the addition of Reynolds plus the emergence of Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura, the offense will be fine, but questions remained about their pitching staff. The addition of Garza gives this team an added element with three number two starters leading their rotation this season. Something Milwaukee has not had since 2011, and that will always be the year people point to until the Brewers can find themselves back into the playoffs. 

Before we look at what Garza's statistics could mean for the Brewers, Melvin did a great job getting Garza at this value given the current market. Additionally, he did not have to give up a draft pick which he would have done if Milwaukee signed Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jiminez. From a management standpoint, this is a good signing for Milwaukee to make if they believe this team has what it takes to make a run to the playoffs. In the National League, it is not out of the question. The combination of Kyle Lohse, Garza and Yovani Gallardo could be pretty special, and if Wily Peralta takes another step as a pitcher, this rotation might be something to be feared this season. 

Unfortunately when the deal was first announced people were quick to their #HOTSPORTSTAKES and made a comparison to Jeff Suppan because he is the last pitcher to get this kind of money from Milwaukee. Now this is flawed and inaccurate. Disregard Garza's .500 record as pitcher as win/loss really does not matter no matter if the pitcher is Sandy Koufax or Bronswell Patrick. Garza is not perfect nor a true ace, but he is only the ripe age of 29 meaning Milwaukee will get him in his essential prime versus when the Brewers inked Suppan he was 32 years heading for the decline. The comparison with Suppan is baseless, and not worth a discussion. 

The one thing to love about Garza is his fiery nature as a competitor. While we cannot excuse his attitude and behavior towards women, Garza's 'f--- the free world' attitude is something Milwaukee lacked since 2011. I made mention of this in October when Boston was on their way to a World Series appearance. This team did not have any badasses. The 2011 team pissed a lot of baseball pursuits off, and it was stellar. But the last two years, this team played without an edge. Carlos Gomez fits what Garza brings as well as a couple others yet this edge, this chip on the shoulder nature was not present. Hopefully with Garza that returns even if we might get a few outbursts at inopportune times. Once again, let's pray he does not make any more comments about women. 

Things to like about Garza is his ERA steadley stays under four. The last time Garza's ERA was over four for an entire season was at age 22 when he broke into the league with Minnesota. Since 2011, Garza's strikeout to walk ratio has been over three, an improvement from the first couple years in the league although his strikeouts per nine innings has been down in the last couple years. This could be a sign that he is pitching more to contact versus trying to strike every player out.  In 2010, Garza walked 79 batters but since then those numbers went down rapidly with in 2012, he went down by more than 50 percent. Whatever issue Garza had with control during his last year at Tampa Bay are over. 

If there is one thing to raise an eyebrow like you were The Rock, it would be Garza's issue with giving up home runs. Garza averages about a home run per nine innings. With the way balls tend to fly out of Miller Park, this could be a problem. It is the same issue with Marco Estrada. This is okay if there are no runners are on or one at the very most. It gets troublesome when there are multiple runners on. The other issue is Garza struggles fielding bunts at time. It is a weird quirk, but he is not a good fielding pitcher. Hopefully, Brewers fans will do some research on Garza therefore they can expect this rather than make wild assumptions... Oh wait they crossed out Ryan Braun's name on shirt jerseys to make a statement. Nevermind, my bad. Garza is a good pitcher, but he does come with some negatives as all players do in any sport. 

Can the Brewers make a serious run at the playoffs?  By March 15th, I will probably be talked into it, but the team has its best chance since 2011. They have as dangerous as a two through six in baseball along with a competent pitching staff with a bullpen that could be improved yet it is not the worst in the Major Leagues. This team might be on the cusp of something big, and Garza is a big reason why, now to see if it all comes together like the Brewers hope it does in the 2014 season. 

Charlie.