A Safe, Expensive Bet on the Future of Sam Shields

Green Bay Packers had a decision to make with Sam Shields, their up and coming cornerback, this offseason. They could either bring Shields back, or let him go to another team. Many people believed Shields would get paid within the range of six to eight million dollars. Instead, Shields broke the bank like that Schoolboy Q song, with a four year 39 million dollars contract with a 12.5 million dollar signing bonus. This caused people to overreact like they were just subtweeted, but in reality, the contract works for both as Green Bay took a risk on his potential which is probably the smart one to make for this team.

Many people believe the contract is too high for a player of Shields's caliber because the past couple years do not equate to the money he will be getting over the next four years.  People need to remember they are paying for him to be good in the short-term future. It is a lot like the futures market on Wall Street where you are betting on something to happen in a positive manner. Just like Randolph and Mortimer Duke bet on the future orange juice market, Green Bay and Ted Thompson are betting on Shields' future which looks brighter than most cornerbacks right now. 

Sam Shields vs. A.J. Green, Josh Gordon, Brandon Marshall and Calvin Johnson in 2013 (5 games): Allowed 8 catches, 129 yards, 1 TD.
— Zach Kruse (@zachkruse2) March 9, 2014

This tweet from Zach Kruse of Bleacher Report and Cheesehead TV is all that should tell you about why betting on Shields is the right idea. That's not a small sample size either. Shields basically kept three of the best receivers in football whom happened to see Green Bay twice a year in complete check. Oh yeah, he also did the damn thing against Alshon Jeffery. Shields is developing into a lockdown corner, and yes, he is not great against the rush yet he can hold down some of the best in the business. When people are wondering about his paycheck, these are the statistics needed to be used to look at Shields versus just reference the contract numbers. What's something I think people miss out on is Green Bay rarely on beat on vertical routes. Almost all of their problems happened over the middle. Shields and Tramon Williams did a great job on the edge, but that's get lost because the safeties were so damn bad.   

One of the other interesting things about Shields contract is he only gets paid six million dollars in his second year. He gets 15 million next year with contract and bonus, and only two million plus the usual three million dollar bonus in 2015.  In case you were wondering, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Bryan Bulaga are all up in 2015 meaning Green Bay found a way to pay Shields and defer money in that particular season to pay all of their other cornerstone players. While the 15 million dollars might people uneasy like Marty Hart watching the lost tape, it is only to cover Green Bay wanting to pay him severely less in  2015 to ensure they can get the other horses in place. 18 million dollars finishes off the four year journey with Shields, and by that time, nine million dollars a year will probably make sense. 

The only thing where there should be concern is the microscope becomes bigger on Shields. He never really had any pressure to perform. For the most part, people liked him as a player and no really took issue with him. If Green Bay struggles against the pass, Shields will get the blame right away. He becomes enemy number one in the cynical fans mind because he is quote 'making too money' plus all of the hot takes that follow with the particular quote.  That is the part of it where I worry about how this will play out for Shields. Fans will now expect him to be perfect which is highly unrealistic and stupid yet that's the fanbase at times. Hopefully, the pressure does not get to Shields and he keeps playing at his high rate because all will be forgotten about the money if he is making plays like this one. 

Green Bay's bar is set for the offseason. Half of the salary cap room is now slashed and they might bring back the likes of B.J. Raji, James Jones and Mike Neal if the money is right for the Packers. Thompson knows what he wants to pay for these players, and he will not go any higher than the bar set for all of these players. Thompson knows, he always does no matter what anyone else thinks of him.

Charlie. 

The Lone NFC North Survivor.

It is hard to remember a Packer game that felt tremendously nerve-wracking. It probably would have been the Wild Card round game against Philadelphia in 2010.  Super Bowl definitely had some nerves, but it did not come to the end of the game. Same goes for against Chicago in the Championship round. This game felt like my heart was coming out of my chest, and I knew by the end of it, I would either be as happy as I have been in 2013 with a suffering year as a Wisconsin sports fan or it would be just another notch on a horrible year to live in the state of Wisconsin.

While the first half featured a lack of scoring, a touchdown-fumble and an uncharacteristically bad Aaron Rodgers, the second half felt like how the game should have been going for the whole thing. A complete shootout where defense was not allowed. Green Bay's rushing defense could not stop a nosebleed letting Matt Forte run wild. Jay Culter could not have been more efficient, and did not make that one mistake everyone in the state of Wisconsin expected to happen. It is not like Packers were struggling on offense either, they were moving the ball but still found themselves down one with six minutes left after Mike McCarthy failed to go from two after an Eddie Lacy touchdown.

Usually, I am completely behind the advanced metrics crew, but here's where I disagree when it comes for going for two. If Packers defense could have made a stop, I feel like it is easier for Mike McCarthy to go for two. The reason he decided to go for one was to preserve a chance to tie up the game again if Chicago were to score another touchdown. That would not have been the case had Green Bay failed to go for two. I recognized the idea the final drive would not have been like pulling teeth with a rusty wrench yet still to call it ridiculous to go for the extra point is being a little of a extremist.

At six minutes and change left, I did not know if it would be the last drive of the game for Green Bay. When McCarthy went for it on a short fourth down from their own 22, I realized this would be it. Do or die for Green Bay for the entire season. I also began thinking about how McCarthy would be killed by the advanced metric community and the local pinheads calling into radio stations. John Kuhn found a way to the first down. Green Bay faced another short fourth down, and passed the ball to Jordy Nelson where he caught it for six yards. Packers moved slightly into Bears territory but once again, found themselves with a third straight fourth down....

People were ready to come down on Rodgers talking about how bad he looked out there, the refusal to run the football and once again, the age-old narrative that he cannot close out big games. He steps out of the pocket escaping Julius Peppers (Great, great block from John Kuhn) and he found Randall Cobb wide open down field. I could not believe it. I wanted to run around the house like I just won the lottery, but I had such a head rush from standing, it physically caused me to sit down but I had a massive smile on my face before grabbing another beer knowing Chicago had 38 seconds left with a quarterback with a huge arm and two massive wide receivers.

Thankfully, Brandon Marshall had a key drop at Green Bay's 30 and Cutler throws an interception to Sam Shields as he shorts a pass intended for Alshon Jeffery. Packers somehow is in the playoffs and are in the mix with their full arsenal back in action on offense. Game is on and who knows how this story ends.

It feels like 2003 more than anything else where Green Bay kept having inexplicable moments to keep them alive meaning Tramon Williams will have a walk-off interception and then I will cry in the divisional round. Let's hope half of that is true. San Francisco poises a huge challenge for Green Bay, but right now, it is still time to enjoy one of the most improbable NFC North division crown.

Charlie.