by Adam Hatlak, edited by Charlie Tritschler.
Late December/early January is generally when the NBA starts to heat up. For this NBA season, this is especially true. With all of the injuries to major stars and one of the most anticipated draft classes in recent memory coming up, the landscape of the NBA is in store for a major shakeup. Due to all the changes, now is a good time to look at what the NBA will look like for the next 3-5 years. These Power Rankings were made from a fan’s perspective including many different variables: probability of future success, likeability of organization, trust in front office, and ability to acquire/retain quality players. All of the criteria are applied for the next 3-5 years, as anything further into the future is increasingly more difficult to predict.
Teams ranked from 30.) - 25.)
Teams ranked from 24) - 20.)
Teams ranked from 19.) -15.)
Teams ranked from 14.) - 10.)
Teams ranked from 9.) - 5.) Teams ranked from 30.) - 25.)
Teams ranked from 24) - 20.)
Teams ranked from 19.) -15.)
Teams ranked from 14.) - 10.)
4.) Houston Rockets
Key Assets: James Harden, Dwight Howard, Chandler Parsons, Omer Asik, Jeremy Lin, Daryl Morey.
Reason for Hope: Daryl Morey built this team through acquiring quality assets and turning them into superstars, only Houston only acquired Parsons through the draft. Harden and Howard both have top-10 potential as individuals and capable of being one of the most deadly pick’n’roll combinations in the league. Parsons fits in very well with this team, as he is not asked to do more than he is capable of due to the abilities of his teammates. The Rockets are guaranteed to get extra value on the court before or at the trade deadline, whether they are finally able to turn Asik into a new player, or if they convince him to man the second unit inside like he did in Chicago. If this team figures it out, they could be extremely dominant in the West.
Reason for Concern: Despite Houston’s ability to build this team without very little homegrown talent, there are significant concerns about their top stars. Harden has admittedly not given his all on defense at times and may lack the ability to shut down opponents top scorers. There will always be concerns about Howard’s maturity, and his main advantage over his peers is his athleticism, something that will fade as he ages. Asik and Lin are very nice role players, but their salary skyrockets in the future, making them difficult pieces to trade. A move with Lin or Asik that may be necessary in the future, as Parsons will not always be available for a dirt cheap deal. This team still has a few more roster moves to make before being a legitimate title contender.
Key Decision Looming: What do they get back for Asik? There have been multiple times where it seems like Houston had a plan in place to deal Asik, and both parties certainly need to move on from each other. As time passes, his trade value decreases greatly, due to not being on the court and his contract next year. The Rockets stated they wanted two first round picks for Asik, but when this is all said and done, it seems likely they’ll move him for a heavily protected first rounder.
3.) Indiana Pacers
Key Assets: Paul George, Roy Hibbert, Lance Stephenson, David West, Danny Granger, Frank Vogel.
Reason for Hope: A year after winning the Most Improved Player award, George made another leap, becoming one of the top five players in the game. Hibbert maintained his high level of play from the playoffs last year, and as a whole, Pacers are getting more respect from the rest of the league, refs included. Stephenson is improving as a player as well, and has become the type of player the Pacers need to lock up to a long-term deal this offseason. Perhaps most importantly, no team in the NBA looks hungrier this year than the Pacers, and it seems like nothing but defeating Miami Heat in the playoffs will satisfy that hunger. This team seems stable enough to go to battle with the same core for the next few seasons.
Reason for Concern: It has not been an issue yet this season, but decisions regarding Granger are looming. Granger was the leader and soul of this team prior to George’s rise to stardom, and dealing with his return or departure could prove problematic to team chemistry, a true strength for the Pacers. George and Stephenson both came into the season with very small contracts that were very team friendly. George has already been extended, but Stephenson is next and will require a significant raise. West has been great for the team, but is old and has an injury history; will he be able to stay healthy when the Pacers need him most? It also feels like the team gets overrated slightly due to their ability to match up well against the Heat. They are still an elite team, but look better to casual fans, as they can dominate Miami inside.
Key Decision Looming: Is Danny Granger move valuable on the court or in a trade? Granger's deal is expiring and is likely to move on next season so the Pacers can extend Stephenson, this is leading to multiple trade rumors surrounding Granger. The truth is he is most valuable on the court for Indiana. It is clear they are gunning for the title this year, and Granger coming off the bench, assuming he is willing to accept that role giving the best chance to do win a championship. Allowing Granger to rack up points with the second unit lets the Pacers play the hot hand between him and Stephenson in crunch time. Even though Granger once had star status, he would be a great veteran leader while they make a run at the Heat. The team should allow Granger to contribute to a potential title team in Indiana and let him walk after the season if they cannot afford him.
2.) Miami Heat
Key Assets: LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Pat Riley, Erik Spoelstra.
2.) Miami Heat
Key Assets: LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Pat Riley, Erik Spoelstra.
Reason for Hope: Any time you have James, the outlook is good. Unless something changes, he will be the best player in the NBA for at least the next three years, potentially more. The best part about James is that he works to make other players better therefore the ability to attract mid-level free agents is increased, and Riley showed a great ability to do so. With Wade’s new schedule keeping him fresher, it seems like he will be more of a force in the playoffs, when Miami will need him most. Spoelstra is one of the more underrated coaches in the league, as he does have great talent, but also does a good job of putting them in position to succeed. Bosh’s demeanor and lack of physicality at times makes him an easy scapegoat for this team when things are going wrong, but he is the second most valuable player behind James, as he is Miami’s one quality big, and his playing style works well for what the Heat are trying to do.
Reason for Concern: Age is starting to catch up to this team with Wade being affected the most. While it seems like this team came together relatively recently, they all have the ability to opt out of their contracts soon, something that James and Bosh seem likely to do. Their veteran role players are also getting older and closer to retirement and Miami might have some issues replacing them. They consistently do not have enough quality depth inside with no true resolution in sight. Bosh is more likely to leave than James, although it seems likely both will stay, but either way the team will run out of ways to make constant improvements due to age and salaries, while their chief rivals will be able to catch up.
Key Decision Looming: When is the right time to end the Big Three era? Heat created their identity based on Bosh, James, and Wade, but a day will come when those three cannot lead their team to a NBA Title anymore. Wade seems to be the first one to potentially decline out of the situation, but he would also likely be the most difficult for the Heat franchise to move on from. James and Bosh also seem likely to opt out of their deals this offseason, in hopes of getting more long term money, or potentially leaving for greener pastures. Both should stay in Miami to see how many titles they can win together, but the salary associated with Wade will make it difficult to bring in more help as time goes. The new CBA will make it difficult on the Heat to continue to add to the team, but they should stick with the Big Three and allow veterans to take small deals to chase a championship.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Key Assets: Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, Reggie Jackson, Steven Adams, Jeremy Lamb.
Reason for Hope: They have the best young core in the NBA as Durant, Westbrook, and Ibaka are all still 25 and under. Durant is the likely heir to the best player in the NBA throne, for when LeBron begins to fade. Westbrook, when healthy, is also a top 10 player. Each of these players is still showing signs of improvement.. Thunder have also done a great job continuing to add young talent to their rotation. While Jackson, Adams, and Lamb are no James Harden, they are providing solid bench production. If they are able to bring it when it matters most, this team will continue to contend. Perry Jones III still has enough raw potential to possibly develop into a scary player off the bench, but he is a player nobody discusses.
Reason for Concern: Westbrook’s knee has been operated on three times in the last eight months. For a player that has overwhelming athletic ability, it will be interesting to see if this causes him to dramatically alter his game, and if it will affect his ability to dominate. The team is still oddly committed to Kendrick Perkins, and due to the handling of James Harden, the upcoming contract for Jackson has people wondering how the Thunder will handle it. The Thunder benefited by dominating the draft for three straight years, but now they will have to retain their stars for their full careers while having an ownership that seems unwilling to pay the luxury tax, something that could eventually cause key players to move on willingly or not be retained.
Key Decision Looming: Can they afford Jackson? Until they win a title, the Thunder will always be haunted by the handling of the Harden trade. It is not as bad as most have made it seem, as they were able to acquire Lamb and Adams, whom are not likely to ever equal Harden’s superstardom, but will be able to contribute on this team. They do have a similar situation coming up with Jackson’s contract. He proved to be a great bench player behind Westbrook, and even held his own when called upon to start with Westbrook down with injury. Luckily Perkins will eventually see his contract expire and Thunder will have to decide between paying Jackson or trading him for a pile of assets. With Westbrook’s injury concerns, having Jackson lead the bench or the starters is a must, even though it may cost the team.
Reason for Concern: Age is starting to catch up to this team with Wade being affected the most. While it seems like this team came together relatively recently, they all have the ability to opt out of their contracts soon, something that James and Bosh seem likely to do. Their veteran role players are also getting older and closer to retirement and Miami might have some issues replacing them. They consistently do not have enough quality depth inside with no true resolution in sight. Bosh is more likely to leave than James, although it seems likely both will stay, but either way the team will run out of ways to make constant improvements due to age and salaries, while their chief rivals will be able to catch up.
Key Decision Looming: When is the right time to end the Big Three era? Heat created their identity based on Bosh, James, and Wade, but a day will come when those three cannot lead their team to a NBA Title anymore. Wade seems to be the first one to potentially decline out of the situation, but he would also likely be the most difficult for the Heat franchise to move on from. James and Bosh also seem likely to opt out of their deals this offseason, in hopes of getting more long term money, or potentially leaving for greener pastures. Both should stay in Miami to see how many titles they can win together, but the salary associated with Wade will make it difficult to bring in more help as time goes. The new CBA will make it difficult on the Heat to continue to add to the team, but they should stick with the Big Three and allow veterans to take small deals to chase a championship.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Key Assets: Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, Reggie Jackson, Steven Adams, Jeremy Lamb.
Reason for Hope: They have the best young core in the NBA as Durant, Westbrook, and Ibaka are all still 25 and under. Durant is the likely heir to the best player in the NBA throne, for when LeBron begins to fade. Westbrook, when healthy, is also a top 10 player. Each of these players is still showing signs of improvement.. Thunder have also done a great job continuing to add young talent to their rotation. While Jackson, Adams, and Lamb are no James Harden, they are providing solid bench production. If they are able to bring it when it matters most, this team will continue to contend. Perry Jones III still has enough raw potential to possibly develop into a scary player off the bench, but he is a player nobody discusses.
Reason for Concern: Westbrook’s knee has been operated on three times in the last eight months. For a player that has overwhelming athletic ability, it will be interesting to see if this causes him to dramatically alter his game, and if it will affect his ability to dominate. The team is still oddly committed to Kendrick Perkins, and due to the handling of James Harden, the upcoming contract for Jackson has people wondering how the Thunder will handle it. The Thunder benefited by dominating the draft for three straight years, but now they will have to retain their stars for their full careers while having an ownership that seems unwilling to pay the luxury tax, something that could eventually cause key players to move on willingly or not be retained.
Key Decision Looming: Can they afford Jackson? Until they win a title, the Thunder will always be haunted by the handling of the Harden trade. It is not as bad as most have made it seem, as they were able to acquire Lamb and Adams, whom are not likely to ever equal Harden’s superstardom, but will be able to contribute on this team. They do have a similar situation coming up with Jackson’s contract. He proved to be a great bench player behind Westbrook, and even held his own when called upon to start with Westbrook down with injury. Luckily Perkins will eventually see his contract expire and Thunder will have to decide between paying Jackson or trading him for a pile of assets. With Westbrook’s injury concerns, having Jackson lead the bench or the starters is a must, even though it may cost the team.
Post a Comment